*** My weekly dialog with Doc’s Sports activities handicapper Raphael Esparza (@VSIdocsports) is accessible beneath. Esparza will be part of me every week throughout the season to debate the highest Pac-12 video games …
The chances and the gods are in opposition to Arizona State Friday evening in Berkeley.
The Solar Devils are a Four.5-point underdog and face a problem that generally appears otherworldly — that of the Pac-12 street staff making an attempt to win outright on a Friday evening.
Yep, the Friday outcomes proceed to tilt closely to the house staff.
And by closely, we imply 87 %.
Friday hosts are 13-2 in convention video games because the begin of the 2016 season.
(We’re excluding rivalry video games as a result of nearly all of these cases of the three years have concerned a bus experience for the customer.)
After all, the straight-up end result doesn’t current the total image, as a result of in lots of cases the house staff was favored — it was the higher staff, usually by a big quantity.
However once more, the scoreboard tilts closely to the hosts:
Highway groups are 5-10 in opposition to the unfold and have misplaced outright because the betting favourite in 4 of six cases.
The Hotline hasn’t taken a math class since highschool and got here rattling near failing, however even we all know that’s statistically important information — to the extent that it’s clear there’s a aggressive benefit for the house staff.
The convention took a beating (from the Hotline) in 2017 for sending groups on the street on Friday after enjoying on the street on Saturday.
It principally scheduled itself out of playoff rivalry, so devastating had been the Friday outcomes for street groups (USC at WSU, WSU at Cal and Washington at Stanford).
To its credit score, the Pac-12 responded by implementing a coverage by which the Friday street staff will need to have a house sport or be idle the earlier week.
How has that gone?
Because the begin of ’18, the Friday street groups are 1-5 straight up and 2-Four in opposition to the unfold.
These numbers embrace Utah’s seven-point loss within the Coliseum final week as a Three.5-point favourite.
Listed below are the outcomes as seen from the customer’s perspective:
USC at Utah: underdog by 2, misplaced by Four
Stanford at Washington: underdog by Three, misplaced by 41
Oregon at Cal: underdog by 1, misplaced by Three
Utah at Arizona: favored by Three, gained by 6
USC at WSU: favored by Four, misplaced by Three
WSU at Cal: favored by 16, misplaced by 34
UCLA at Utah: underdog by 7, misplaced by 31
Washington at Stanford: favored by 6, misplaced by eight
Cal at UCLA: underdog by 7, misplaced by Three
WSU at USC: underdog by Four, misplaced by Three
UCLA at Colorado: underdog by 9, misplaced by 22
Arizona at Utah: underdog by 13, misplaced by 32
Utah at UCLA: favored by 10, gained by 31
Colorado at Arizona: underdog by Three, misplaced by eight
Utah at USC: favored by Three.5, misplaced by 7
ASU at Cal: underdog by Four.5, ????
Good luck to the Solar Devils. It seems they want it.
To the picks …
Final week: 1-5
5-star particular: 1-Three
All picks in opposition to the unfold.Strains taken from vegasinsider.com (for leisure functions solely, or not)
Open dates: Oregon and Colorado
Arizona State ( Four.5) at Cal (Friday): The problem cited above plus the stress on ASU quarterback Jayden Daniels in his first convention street sport. Cal’s protection is as stout as Michigan State’s, and ASU managed simply 10 factors in East Lansing. If the Bears’ operating sport is efficient, it might get out of hand. Decide: Cal.
Washington State ( 5.5) at Utah: Can’t think about a harder project for WSU after the intestine punch final week: On the street, at altitude, and going through an opponent that may make every part troublesome. However the Cougars needs to be inspired by their prospects in opposition to a Utes secondary that’s clearly not on the prime of its sport, if they’ll defend Anthony Gordon. Decide: Washington State
Stanford (-Four.5) at Oregon State: We recognized this as an upset particular previous to the season, reasoning that the Cardinal can be primed for a letdown after its rugged early schedule. Now, an OSU victory wouldn’t be seen as an upset. With two weeks to organize and sufficient pace on the perimeter to trigger hassle, the Beavers ought to take this to the wire. Decide: Oregon State
USC ( 10.5) at Washington: Massive quantity … enormous quantity. However is it large enough? The Trojans haven’t proven any consistency, the comparative scores in opposition to BYU can’t be ignored, and UW quarterback Jacob Eason appears to be settling in. Both the Trojans flex their expertise and it’s a thriller, or the Huskies win handily. We don’t see a center floor. Decide: USC
UCLA ( 6.5) at Arizona: The house staff was stout final day trip (Texas Tech) and has a big benefit with two weeks to organize, whereas the guests are again on the street following the limitless, emotional shootout in Pullman. (Does UCLA have something left?) All indicators level to an Arizona victory, which makes me surprise … Decide: UCLA
Straight-up winners: Cal, Utah, Stanford, Washington and UCLA
5-star particular: Oregon State. There isn’t any remedy for unhealthy offense just like the Beavers’ protection. Stanford hasn’t scored a lot recently however will rating lots Saturday. So will OSU.
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